Betting One Spread, One Total In Knicks-Celtics, Nuggets-Thunder Game 1s Monday
The 2025 NBA Playoffs roll along Monday with the start of the New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets for their conference semifinal openers. The first is a meeting between two of the three biggest markets in the NBA, which should help its TV ratings, and the latter pits the two best players in the world against each other.
Even as a lifelong NBA fan, I've hated this season. That said, if Monday's doubleheader doesn't interest you, then the Association just isn't your thing. Regardless, the best way to get interested in a sport is to bet on it. It worked for me with golf. Besides Tiger Woods, I never watched the PGA TOUR until I started gambling on it religiously. In that vein, here are my picks for Monday.
2025 NBA Playoffs betting card for Cinco de Mayo
The odds are the best available at the time of writing.
- New York Knicks +9 (-105), down to +7.5, at the Boston Celtics via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.05 units (u).
- OVER 226 (-110), up to 227.5, in Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder via DraftKings, risking 1.1u.
Knicks (+9) at Celtics
The average total of the four Knicks-Celtics regular season meetings was 224.1, the lowest was 221.5 opening night, and the Celtics were -5.6 favorites on average. Boston is a -9 consensus favorite and the total is 212.5-213 for Game 1. Since the market predicts a lower-scoring affair, it'll be tougher for the Celtics to cover the spread Monday.
Furthermore, the market is penalizing New York for eking past the Detroit Pistons in the first round 4-2. The last four Pistons-Knicks games were decided by three or fewer points. While the Celtics got the Orlando Magic out in a "gentleman's sweep" with four wins of at least nine points. But, Detroit is better than Orlando, and NYK covered four of their six games vs. the Pistons.
The Boston Celtics host the New York Knicks Monday for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. (Photo credit: John Jones-Imagn Images)
Also, the Knicks were built this offseason to beat the Celtics. Will they? No, Boston probably wins this series. However, New York can keep these games close and perhaps steal one or two games. Knicks PG Jalen Brunson is the best guard in this series. New York All-Star C Karl-Anthony Towns is better than Celtics C Kristaps Porzingis.
NYK has three defensive wings (OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Mikal Bridges) to throw at Boston's dynamic duo, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Knicks' biggest challenge for this series is limiting Boston's 3-point shooting. Granted, that's easier said than done. But, if New York extends its perimeter defense or the Celtics have an off-shooting night, they aren't winning by double digits.
Boston opened as -8.5 favorites and is moving toward -9.5 across the market. Since my return on investment this NBA season is -7.2% and my "closing line value" is +1.1%, I'm looking to fade the line movement. Especially in this matchup between two high-profile teams that was so one-sided during the regular season.
Prediction: Celtics 112, Knicks 107
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OVER 226 in Nuggets at Thunder
Oklahoma City had the sixth-fastest pace during the regular season and led the first round of the postseason in pace. Denver led the NBA in fastbreak points per game (PPG) in the regular season and ranks fifth in fastbreak offensive efficiency among the 20 playoff and play-in teams, per CleaningTheGlass.com.
The total chopped 2-2 Over/Under (O/U) in the four Nuggets-Thunder meetings this season. But, three of those games combined for 230+ points, and the average pace of their regular-season series was 101.2. For context, that's slightly faster than OKC's playoff pace of 101.1. Denver will push the pace in Game 1 because that's the best way it can keep up with Oklahoma City.
Plus, officiating is when it comes to betting totals, and the referee crew assigned to the Nuggets-Thunder Monday have a combined 102-73 O/U record. OKC was 26th in defensive free-throw attempt rate (FTr) in the regular season and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made the most free throws per game. Denver was fifth in offensive FTr and Nikola Jokić is as good at drawing fouls as SGA.
Finally, the trends point to a higher-scoring affair. The Nuggets are playing on one-day rest after beating the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 7 of their first-round series Sunday. Denver is 15-8 O/U with a rest disadvantage and a +8.8 O/U margin. The Thunder are 25-17-1 O/U as a home favorite in the regular season and playoffs.
Prediction: Thunder 122, Nuggets 115
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