2025 NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Knicks-Celtics, Warriors-Timberwolves Game 5s

Two teams try to stave off elimination on Wednesday in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. Down 3-1, the Boston Celtics host the New York Knicks in a must-win Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. In the nightcap, the Minnesota Timberwolves look to finish off a Steph Curry-less Golden State Warriors in Game 5 of the Western Conference Semifinals. 

Heads up: I'm making my biggest bet on a side for the Knicks-Celtics game and my biggest bet on a player prop in the Warriors-Timberwolves. Part of that is due to confidence in my handicaps. The other part is that I feel like gambling (responsibly, of course). Without further ado, let's get into my NBA Playoff picks for Wednesday. 

2025 NBA Playoffs Best Bets for Wednesday, May 14 

Odds are the best available at the time of writing. 

• New York Knicks +5 (-110), down to pick 'em, at Boston Celtics via Fanatics Sportsbook, risking 1.1 units (u)
• New York Knicks +160 moneyline via Fanatics, risking 0.9u.
• Golden State Warriors PF Draymond Green OVER 20.5 PTS-REB-AST (+100), up to -130, via DraftKings, risking 1u.

Knicks (+5) at Celtics 

Boston's season all but ended when Jayson Tatum ruptured his Achilles at the end of the Celtics' 121-113 Game 4 loss on Monday to go down 3-1. Since New York advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals is a matter of when, not if, the wrong team appears to be favored in Game 5. The Knicks won the first two games of this series in Boston and had a 95+% win probability in Game 4 at the time of Tatum's injury. 

Tatum put on a masterclass on Monday, but New York was still the better team. Celtics C Kristaps Porzingis is playing hurt, averaging just 5.0 points on 27.8% shooting in 17.5 minutes per game in this series. Jaylen Brown is shooting 37.7% and will be the focal point of the Knicks' defense with Tatum sidelined. 

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Also, Knicks All-Star PG Jalen Brunson has been the best player in this series. Brunson leads both teams in points (28.0) and assists (7.8)  per game. Celtics guards Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are supposed to be the best defensive backcourt in the NBA, but Brunson is tearing them apart. 

New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson backing down Boston Celtics SG Derrick White during Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. (Photo credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images)

The pro-Boston argument for it winning and covering the spread in Game 5 is that "heart of a champion" bullsh*t, or New York having a let-down because the Celtics know the series is finished. However, coach Joe Mazzula has called his team out for being soft before, and their previous head coach, Ime Udoka, did, too. 

Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau has been clowned for years for playing his starters too much during the regular season, but this is where that strategy should pay dividends. I mean, wings Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges play hard every night. And their teammates aren't going to half-ass a close-out game against the reigning NBA champions, even if they are injured. 

Prediction: Knicks 107, Celtics 98 

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Warriors PF Draymond Green OVER 20.5 Player Combo at Timberwolves

Green got fined $50,000 for mouthing off at the refs in Game 4 and mentioning the point spread. With that in mind, we should get an angrier-than-usual Green on Wednesday. That could lead to an early ejection or a great game. I'm going with the latter because Green usually balls out in close-out games for the Dubs. 

Green has gotten 21+ points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) in the final game of 28 of his 30 career playoff series, including all six close-out games in the NBA Finals. He is one of the most insufferable NBA players ever, and it bums me out that we'll see him on TV for a long time once he retires. Regardless, he usually shows up for big games.  

Finally, the Over for Green's PRA is juiced up to -119 at Pinnacle Sportsbook, compared to even-money at DraftKings. Pinnacle is a "market-making" oddsmaker that the big recreational sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel copy. If the basketball logic lines up, I like hitting player props at these sportsbooks when they are different from Pinnacle's. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.