At These Odds, Texas Tech +425 Are The Best Bet To Win 2025 Big XII Tournament
It's official: 2025 March Madness is here. But, before the Big Dance starts, there are several automatic bids available for the conference tournament champions. I'm not betting on the non-Power basketball conference tourneys. Instead, I'm starting with the Big XII Conference Tournament, which tips off Tuesday at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.
The SEC replaced the Big XII as the best college hoops conference this season, which had the highest power rating from 2021-24. Part of that is expansion with Texas and Oklahoma playing their first seasons in the SEC. But, eight Big XII teams are projected to make the 2025 NCAA Tournament, and the #3 Houston Cougars should be a 1-seed.
2025 Big XII Conference Tournament Odds (DraftKings)
- Houston (-105)
- TEXAS TECH (+425)
- Iowa State (+650)
- Arizona (+850)
- BYU Cougars (+1100)
- Kansas Jayhawks (+1300)
- Baylor Bears (+5000)
- West Virginia Mountaineers (+7500)
- Kansas State Wildcats (+20000)
- Cincinnati Bearcats (+20000)
- Utah Utes (+25000)
- UCF Knights (+25000)
- TCU Horned Frogs (+25000)
- Oklahoma State Cowboys (+30000)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (+30000)
- Colorado Buffaloes (+50000)
Houston is the odds-on favorite to cut the nets down at T-Mobile Center, but that number is just too big. Don't get me wrong, the advanced numbers support the Cougars being priced this high, and they are the Big XII regular-season champion. Yet, the last three regular-season Big XII champs haven't won the conference tourney.
More importantly, Texas Tech is the only Big XII team to beat the Cougars. The Red Raiders won in Houston despite their best player, big J.T. Toppin, and head coach Grant McCasland, getting ejected in the first five minutes of that game. The Cougars got revenge, beating Texas Tech 69-61 in Lubbock in their rematch.
The Houston Cougars and Texas Tech Red Raiders are the first and second betting favorites to win the 2025 Big XII Tournament. (Photo credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images)
However, the Red Raiders were missing their second-leading scorer, and best shooter, SG Chance McMillian, who was Ken Pom's MVP of the first Houston-Texas Tech meeting. The Red Raiders upset the Cougars by hitting seven more 3-pointers (12-5), which has been the secret to TTU's success all season.
They are third in offensive 3-point percentage in conference play and first defensively, according to Ken Pom. Texas Tech has the second-highest 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) in the Big XII and ranks second in defensive 3PAr, per Bart Torvik. As we all know, 3-pointers are the end-all-be-all in basketball nowadays.
Also, the Red Raiders won't have to play Houston until the Big XII title game, and TTU's path to the conference championship is relatively easy. Texas Tech faces KSU, ASU, or Baylor in the quarterfinals, and the Red Raiders are 3-0 vs. those teams this season.
If TTU advanced to the semifinals, it would play whoever advances out of the UFC-Utah-Kansas-Arizona side of the bracket. While the Wildcats are the fourth betting favorite to win the Big XII tourney, and they beat the Red Raiders at home, I'm not a believer in ‘Zona. According to Bart Torvik, Arizona is 5-8 in road or neutral-court Quad I games.
Texas Tech, on the other hand, is 7-2 in road or neutral-court Quad I games, the same record as Houston, with victories vs. Kansas and BYU. The Red Raiders have the second-highest scoring margin in Big XII games (+9.6) and the best spread differential (+3.4). If necessary, you can hedge in the title game, but I'll ride out with my TTU bet.
BET Texas Tech to win the Big XII title (+425)
- For the record, I'm risking 1 unit (u) on the Red Raiders (+425) to profit 4.25u if they win the Big XII tourney.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my college basketball 2025 betting record via X all season.